Tennessee is at risk of an novel coronavirus outbreak, according to COVIDActNow.org. COVID cases are either increasing at a rate likely to overwhelm hospitals and/or the state’s COVID preparedness is below international standards.
Daily new cases are 20.8 per 100,000, which is a very large number of new cases.
The infection rate is 0.91, which means COVID-19 is still spreading, but slowly.
The positive test rate is 5.2 percent, which indicates adequate testing.
COVID Act Now said 46 percent of the ICU headroom has been used, which means Tennessee can likely handle a new wave of COVID-19 cases.
Only 17 percent of tracers have been hired, which is insufficient the organizations says, even if the program is running effectively.
The nine of the 10 counties with the highest daily new cases per 100,000 are all West Tennessee counties: Haywood with 68.5 per 100,000; Carroll with 59.2 per 100,000; Hardin with 57.4 per 100,000; Hardeman with 55.3 per 100,000; Crockett with 51.2 per 100,000; Weakley with 50.2 per 100,000; Henderson with 49.8 per 100,000; Chester with 47.9 per 100,000; and Gibson with 47.4 per 100,000
Over the last week, Tennessee has averaged 1,419 new confirmed cases per day (20.8 for every 100,000 residents). Over the next year, this translates to around 520,000 cases and an estimated 2,600,000 infections (37.9% of the population)
On average, each person in Tennessee with COVID is infecting 0.91 other people. Because this number is around 1.0, it means that COVID continues to spread, but in a slow and controlled fashion.
A significant percentage (5.2%) of COVID tests were positive, meaning that Tennessee’s testing meets WHO minimums but needs to be further expanded to detect most new cases. Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns.
Tennessee has about 2,044 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 64% (1,305) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 739 ICU beds remaining, 342 are needed by COVID cases, or 46% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections.
With 1,419 new daily cases on average, Tennessee needs an estimated 7,095 contact tracers on staff to trace each new case to a known case within 48 hours of detection. Per our best available data, Tennessee has 1,226 contact tracers, fulfilling 17% of this staffing requirement. With insufficient contact tracing staff, Tennessee is unlikely to be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks.
Gov. Bill Lee has resisted calls for a statewide mask mandate. He has said he believes that Tennesseans should opt in to wearing masks.